US vs. China and the Balance Sheet Credibility Index

An article published in the New York Times in January 2016, states : “The veracity of China’s economic data has been increasingly questioned as the slowing pace of the country’s growth has startled the world. And a new investigation into the official who oversees the numbers is unlikely to inspire confidence.” In the light of … More US vs. China and the Balance Sheet Credibility Index

Complexity-based Identification of Defaulting Companies

The search for early warning signs is one of the key issues for decision makers, managers and investors. The advantages of knowing in advance the evolution towards critical situations are obvious. Complexity is a new and powerful indicator that quantifies the degree of sophistication and governability of a business and which impacts its Resistance to … More Complexity-based Identification of Defaulting Companies

Trump, Brexit and the Failure of Predictive Analytics

The two most important events of this year are the Brexit and the election of the President of the US. In the case of the Brexit, predictions were indicating a clear ‘yes’ while the result was a ‘no’. In the case of US elections, Clinton was going to win. Not only she lost, Trump won … More Trump, Brexit and the Failure of Predictive Analytics

Keynes vs Friedman – What is the Mix Today?

The two opposed versions of the economy may be epitomized (albeit simplistically) by the visions of Keynes and Friedman. The state and regulations versus a deregulated and shock-therapy philosophy. According to the Wikipedia: “Keynesian economics argues that private sector decisions sometimes lead to inefficient macroeconomic outcomes and, therefore, advocates active policy responses by the public … More Keynes vs Friedman – What is the Mix Today?

Confronting Science With Opinions: RtS Versus PoD.

From Wikipedia: “A credit rating is an evaluation of the credit risk of a prospective debtor (an individual, a business, company or a government), predicting their ability to pay back the debt, and an implicit forecast of the likelihood of the debtor defaulting. The credit rating represents an evaluation of a credit rating agency of … More Confronting Science With Opinions: RtS Versus PoD.

Global Finance and Markets – Where are the Vulnerabilities

Situation on 30-th september, 2016 Resistance to shocks, or the so-called RtS rating, measures the ability to withstand the turbulence of markets, corporations, or systems thereof. The table below reports the RtS ratings of a series of markets, as well as market segments, such as pharma, automotive, O&G, etc. It is interesting to note that … More Global Finance and Markets – Where are the Vulnerabilities